"A Taiwan Emergency is a Japanese Emergency"：Will Okinawa Bear the Brunt？
United Daily News, July 15, 2023
People often refer to former Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s famous saying: “A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.” This describes the close security relationship between Japan and Taiwan. But the complete statement was “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance.” This logic ties Taiwan, Japan, and the United States’ fate together, and now it has become Japan’s mainstream security thinking.
When an emergency occurs in Taiwan, whether this means an emergency for Japan as well depends on if the United States intervenes. If the United States intervenes by adopting the same method as in the Russo-Ukrainian war—indirect support through military aid and imposing comprehensive economic sanctions—then Japan would not have much say in exerting any efforts beyond indirect support. They could only follow the United States’ lead.
Okinawa Could Be Military Frontline if U.S. Intervenes in Taiwan Conflict
However, if the United States is determined to directly intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict, dispatch aircraft and ships from bases stationed in Japan, or launch missiles from Japan to attack mainland China’s landing crafts and escort fleets to deter the People’s Liberation Army's (PLA) offense. According to the provisions of Article 6 of the "Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan,” it is stipulated that the U.S. military must first obtain the consent of Japan. With the current status of the U.S.-Japan alliance, it is impossible for Japan to disagree. This means that Japan will declare war on China following the intervention of the U.S. military. When both Japan and China go to war, China is bound to attack the U.S. military bases stationed in Japan.
However, one factor is neglected, and that is Okinawa. Currently, there are nearly 20,000 U.S. troops stationed in Okinawa, including Kadena Air Base, Camp Hansen, Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, and other U.S. military bases and facilities. There are still as many as 31 U.S. military bases and facilities in Okinawa, accounting for more than 70 percent of American military facilities in Japan. In other words, the main firepower of the PLA will concentrate on attacking Okinawa.
Okinawa Favors Reduced U.S. Military Presence, Got Military Buildup Instead
For 27 years after World War II, Okinawa was directly under the rule of the U.S. military. Although the ruling power was handed over to Japan in 1972, the U.S. military was still there. There were countless crimes committed against the Okinawans, not to mention disturbance from the noise of warplanes and environmental pollution, which have seriously affected the lives of residents.
The successive governors of Okinawa Prefecture have strongly urged Tokyo to resolve military the base issue as soon as possible, including further merging and shrinking the U.S. base in Okinawa, fundamentally revising the "Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement,” and closing and returning Futenma Airport as soon as possible.
Now, to prepare to manage a “Taiwan emergency,” the Japanese cabinet approved three security documents including the "National Security Strategy" at the end of last year to further promote the construction of an arc-shaped military fortress on outlying islands called the "Ryukyu Arc," with Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands as the core. It is about to turn the outlying islands from Yonaguni Island to Amami Oshima into military forts; this includes Japan's deployment of Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles and Patriot III surface-to-air missile units to Ishigaki Island in March this year. After Miyako Island, Okinawa Main Island, and Amami Oshima Island, it is the fourth newly established outlying island to set up anti-ship missile units.
Once something happens in the Taiwan Strait, Japan's trump cards to prevent the PLA from breaking the first island chain is firstly to use the geographical advantages of the Ryukyu Arc military fortress to implement powerful electromagnetic warfare against the PLA navy and air force, jamming and covering the communications and the radar of PLA warships and aircraft entering the Miyako Strait, paralyzing the combat capability of the PLA. Furthermore, they can use forces deployed on Ishigaki Island, Miyako Island, and Okinawa Main Island to attack Chinese warships and military aircraft.
Potential Risks in Taiwan Strait Evoke Pain of Okinawa's Past Wars
In order to prevent the military intervention of the U.S.-Japan alliance in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA is bound to strike back against Japan. This will undoubtedly bring back the painful memories of the Battle of Okinawa among its people and worries that Okinawa will fall into the flames of war again.
The Battle of Okinawa was the most tragic battle with the largest number of casualties in World War II. The Japanese army not only forced Okinawa children to go to the battlefield but also forced Okinawa civilians to commit suicide en masse. At that time, one out of four residents of Okinawa were killed, and more than 90,000 innocent people were plunged into an abyss of misery.
In June this year, at the Memorial Ceremony for the 78th Anniversary of the Battle of Okinawa, Okinawa Governor Danny Tamaki, who was re-elected last year, read out the "Declaration of Peace," vowing for peace, and to bear in mind the painful lessons of the Battle of Okinawa and not turn Okinawa into a battlefield again.
Many people often regard Tamaki as a buffoon, thinking that he ignores the overall situation and refuses to cooperate with the United States. However, Danny Tamaki does not consider himself Japanese. He is of mixed blood of a U.S. Marine and Okinawan. He doesn’t think that Japan is really taking care of the interests of Okinawa. Japan's attitude towards the establishment of the U.S. military base in Okinawa is just like Taiwan's towards its setup of the nuclear waste site in Orchid Island.
Danny Tamaki’s Visit to China Was Accorded Dignified Treatment, "Okinawa Independence" Argument Revived
To turn Okinawa into a "peace hub,” Denny Tamaki set up a "Regional Diplomatic Office" in the county government. Its first objective was to start a dialogue with Washington and Beijing. In March this year, Denny Tamaki visited Washington, and nobody paid any attention to him. But he received unprecedented attention from the Chinese when he visited Beijing with a delegation from the Japan Council for the Promotion of International Trade from July 3 to 7.
This is because Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently paid special attention to the Ryukyu issue. When he inspected the National Edition Museum on June 1, he specifically mentioned that when he was working in Fuzhou, he knew that Fuzhou had a Ryukyu Museum, a Ryukyu Tomb, and deep exchanges with Ryukyu. At that time, Ryukyu was an independent kingdom, and there were 36 surnames of Fujian people who entered Ryukyu. This is the first time since Mr. Xi came to power that Ryukyu was mentioned publicly, which attracted the attention of the outside world.
Everyone has speculated that China will form a new regional strategy by strengthening its relationship with Okinawa. Ten years ago, the People’s Daily published an article advocating for the renegotiation of Okinawa’s sovereignty. The Global Times also published an editorial saying that China should support Okinawa's independence under the framework of international law, which has aroused strong protests from Japan. A decade later, Xi Jinping personally made this hint, causing Internet followers to speculate his intentions and to start advocating for "Ryukyu independence" as a bargaining chip to contain Japan and the United States.
In the end, it was not Xi Jinping who came out to receive the delegation, but Premier Li Qiang of the State Council as they are closer in level of rank. This made the Japanese side feel relieved. Although Danny Tamaki was ranked last in the delegation, he stood by Mr. Li’s left when taking pictures. Kono Yohei, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, stood on the right side. China respects the left, which shows the importance China attaches to Danny Tamaki.
Speaker You Meets Japan MPs in Yonaguni Island, Faintly Contending with Beijing
However, when Danny Tamaki was still visiting Beijing, Taiwan’s Legislative President You Si-kun also rode a boat from Yilan to Yonaguni Island. Five Japanese members of the Diet, including Keiji Furuya, the chairman of the “Japan-R.O.C. Diet member’s Consultative Council,” greeted him on Yonaguni Island. This carried a faint hint of confrontation with Tamaki’s Beijing trip, especially Keiji Furuya's comment that "Tamaki is just a local official, this is purely Tamaki's personal idea."
Danny Tamaki is scheduled to visit Taiwan in September, and he pointed out that "Okinawa must not be allowed to become a target of military strikes because of the so-called "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese Emergency." How should this statement be answered when the time comes?